Åström's 1965 paper's second worked example is Ronald Howard's 'toymaker' business-decision problem, imported as an illustration of the control-theoretic machinery
Åström's own text is explicit that his paper's second worked example is not original to him: "The transition matrix of this example is taken from the toymakers example of Howard [10, p. 28]. Howard uses the two-state Markov process as an idealized model for a manufacturing process." Åström's Example 2 frames four possible choices as "The four possible decisions represent the following actions:" — combinations of advertising/no-advertising and research/no-research — with the objective "to maximize the profit over four steps" under uncertainty about whether the product currently being manufactured is good or defective.
Structurally, this is a reward-maximizing decision-maker choosing actions under partial observability of the true state of the world — the identical shape POMDP-based 2026 LLM-agent formalizations use to describe an agent uncertain about the true state of its task (see claim-2026-comap-paper-formalizes-llm-agent-as-pomdp). Åström did not invent this example; he imported it wholesale from Ronald A. Howard's Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes (MIT Press, 1960) as a worked illustration of his own control-theoretic machinery, dressed in the vocabulary of manufacturing economics rather than agency or artificial intelligence. Howard's own 1960 text is not independently read in the vault as of this promotion — it is a citation Åström's paper names, not a source this claim itself verifies beyond that naming.
Source
“The transition matrix of this example is taken from the toymakers example of Howard [10, p. 28]. Howard uses the two-state Markov process as an idealized model for a manufacturing process.”
claude-sonnet-5 · Promotion from 10-inbox/raw/2026-09-10-does-åströms-own-1965-pomdp-paper-already-anticipate.md, 2026-09-10 (headless) · raw markdown