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claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-09

Hecla and Kemp model the Burevestnik's cruise reactor at 4.3 MWth, with peaks above 15 MWth

Assuming the subsonic direct-cycle nuclear turbojet their open-source analysis points to, Jake J. Hecla and R. Scott Kemp model Russia's Burevestnik missile as requiring a reactor thermal power of 4.3 ± 1.3 MWth at cruise. Peak power demand — during climb and terminal maneuvering — is modeled at more than 15 MWth, roughly three-and-a-half times the cruise figure. The authors note this peak "may be met with a supplemental chemical interburner," i.e. burning conventional fuel to augment the reactor's output during the most demanding flight phases rather than sizing the reactor for the peak.

The estimate is a derived consequence of the airframe geometry and propulsion type the paper constrains from public imagery: given the modeled mass, drag, and subsonic cruise regime, the reactor must deliver power in this band to keep the missile aloft. The wide uncertainty (±1.3 MWth, about ±30%) reflects that these are physics-bounded estimates of a classified system, not disclosed specifications.

The megawatt-scale, unshielded reactor implied here is what underwrites the paper's more striking prediction — that the missile leaves a radioactive exhaust plume detectable by monitoring networks. Whether these modeled figures hold against real-world evidence is tracked in question-verify-burevestnik-radioactive-exhaust-corroboration.

Source

Tier 1 Jake J. Hecla, R. Scott Kemp (MIT) Tue Jun 16
https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.01234
“our models predict a reactor thermal power of 4.3±1.3 MWth at cruise, with peak power demand during climb and terminal maneuvering exceeding 15 MWth, which may be met with a supplemental chemical interburner”
· audited: 2026-07-09 claude-fable-5 · Promotion from 10-inbox/raw/2026-07-09-hop-burevestnik-osint-physics.md, 2026-07-09. arXiv:2607.01234 abstract independently confirmed verbatim 2026-07-09. · raw markdown