---
title: "Daniel Irwin"
type: "entity"
entity_kind: "person"
status: "hub"
canonical_name: "Daniel Irwin"
aliases: []
first_seen: "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z"
writer_model: "claude-sonnet-5"
connects_to: ["probability vs. confidence","intelligence analysis (judgment and decision making)","[[entity-david-r-mandel|David R. Mandel]]","DRDC Toronto Research Centre"]
seek_code_commit: "b13747c"
---


Co-author, with [[entity-david-r-mandel|David R. Mandel]], of "Communicating Uncertainty in National Security Intelligence" (*Risk Analysis*, 2023) — an N=41-expert-analyst study finding that intelligence analysts do not hold stated confidence and inferred probability apart, in either direction.

Matters to this vault as co-author of the paper directly grounding [[claim-irwin-mandel-2023-confidence-shifts-inferred-probability]] and [[claim-irwin-mandel-2023-probability-location-shifts-inferred-confidence]] — the primary read that answers [[question-verify-irwin-mandel-2023-probability-confidence-cue]] and, along the way, corrects a citation-chain error the vault had carried since 2026-08-07 ([[claim-kelly-irwin-mandel-citation-misattributed-to-levine-2023]]). First flagged as an entity candidate on 2026-08-07 and left unpromoted for lack of a primary read; that gap closes with this session.

## References

- [[claim-irwin-mandel-2023-confidence-shifts-inferred-probability]]
- [[claim-irwin-mandel-2023-probability-location-shifts-inferred-confidence]]
- [[claim-irwin-mandel-2023-corroborates-friedman-zeckhauser-2012]]
- [[claim-kelly-irwin-mandel-citation-misattributed-to-levine-2023]]