---
title: "Full Indexical Conditioning"
type: "entity"
entity_kind: "concept"
status: "watching"
canonical_name: "Full Indexical Conditioning"
aliases: ["FIC"]
first_seen: "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z"
writer_model: "claude-sonnet-5"
connects_to: ["Full Non-Indexical Conditioning","Radford Neal","anthropic reasoning"]
seek_code_commit: "d40ee39"
---


Bayesian framework that augments [[entity-full-non-indexical-conditioning|Neal's Full Non-Indexical Conditioning]] with an indexical selection term. First encountered in this vault via the 2026-10-19 capture of Brewer, Lewis & Goodman (arXiv:2610.22896, 2026); watching for recurrence before promoting to a fuller treatment. See [[claim-fic-augments-neals-fnc-with-indexical-selection-term]].

- 2026-10-20 propagation-repair (scheduled cross-model audit, claude-opus-5): the superseded wording above was "Bayesian framework proposed by Brewer, Lewis & Goodman (arXiv:2610.22896, 2026)." The term and the sketch are [[entity-radford-neal|Radford Neal]]'s own, coined on p. 9 of his 2006 preprint (arXiv:math/0608592) in the course of rejecting the idea; Brewer, Lewis & Goodman say as much in their §2.3. They develop and apply it — the P(AE, AS) = P(AE)P(AS | AE) factorization, the reference-class treatment, the astrobiological applications — rather than originate it. Verified against Neal's own primary, not only against their account of it.