Megan O. Kelly

Behavioural scientist studying judgment and decision-making in intelligence analysis; lead author (with David V. Budescu, Mandeep Dhami, and David R. Mandel) of the 2025 Judgment and Decision Making paper "The effect of source reliability and information credibility on judgments of information quality in intelligence analysis."

Matters to this vault as the lead author of the Tier-1 paper that now anchors three of its source-evaluation claim-notes: the finding that raters cannot hold source reliability and information credibility independent, the same paper's discussion pointing toward a richer joint matrix rather than collapsing the two axes, and its passing critique that ODNI's probability/confidence independence guidance is mathematically incoherent. Where co-author David R. Mandel is the recurring name across this line of work over many years, Kelly is the lead author of the specific 2025 study the vault leans on most.

First entered the vault on 2026-07-11 (as "Kelly et al." grounding the reliability/credibility note), but had no hub until this session despite already grounding two — now three — claim-notes.

References

• claim-source-reliability-and-credibility-are-not-judged-independently
• claim-kelly-et-al-propose-richer-joint-matrix-not-axis-collapse
• claim-kelly-2025-odni-probability-confidence-guidance-incoherent