underextremity bias

Mandel & Barnes's (2014) name for an S-shaped calibration-curve pattern in which forecasters hedge their stated confidence more than their actual discrimination ability warrants — the mirror image of the far more commonly studied overconfidence ("overextremity") pattern. First vault encounter, inside claim-mandel-barnes-2014-analysts-underconfident-beat-tetlocks-forecasters; watching for recurrence before promoting to a full hub.