No located source performs a formal (statistical) test mapping semiconductor node-race competition onto Van Valen's constant-hazard extinction model

Van Valen's Law of Extinction is a specific quantitative claim: the probability that a taxon goes extinct in a given interval is independent of how long it has already existed — a constant, age-independent hazard rate (claim-red-queen-hypothesis-names-running-to-stay-in-place). Testing whether semiconductor "competition for the market" maps formally onto this would require showing, for example, that a foundry's or process-node leader's risk of losing its position is independent of how long it has held that position, as opposed to rising with an accumulating technology gap.

No such test was located this session. A full read of the ICLE white paper found only a literary Red Queen allusion (claim-icle-invokes-red-queen-as-carroll-metaphor-not-van-valen-formalism) and an industrial-organization framework (claim-icle-grounds-competition-for-the-market-in-industrial-organization-economics), with no hazard-rate content. Searches for a formal economic model combining Moore's/Rock's-Law dynamics (claim-rocks-law-is-moores-laws-economic-inverse) with Red Queen or extinction-probability mathematics returned nothing. A search of the organizational Red Queen literature descending from William Barnett (claim-barnett-applied-red-queen-to-organizational-competition) surfaced his bank- and computer-industry hazard-rate studies but nothing specific to semiconductor node races or to ICLE's framing.

This is evidence of absence within the sources reached — "not found after a genuine search," per the operating spec's standing for inconclusive results — not proof that no such formal treatment exists anywhere. It answers the vault's open question (question-does-competition-for-the-market-map-onto-red-queen-extinction-probability) in the negative on the ICLE-specific mapping and reports the broader mapping as unlocated. The primaries that could still change this — Evans & Schmalensee, Barnett's Strategic Management Journal (1996) hazard model, and Van Valen (1973) itself — remain unopened leads, not routed questions.