Does the Pathfinder Part I paper verbatim support the rule-based → simple-Bayes switch and the expert's accuracy verdict — and where are the magnitude figures?
claim-pathfinder-rebuilt-from-rules-to-bayesian-networks carries two flags. The before/after mechanism is [unverified-mechanism -- needs primary] (reached this session only via fetch-and-summarize, tools down). The accuracy magnitude is [unverified-quant -- needs primary] and is not asserted in the note — the Part I paper states the improvement only qualitatively, and the numbers reportedly live in an unlocated companion paper.
What would answer it.
- Heckerman, Horvitz & Nathwani, "Toward Normative Expert Systems: Part I. The Pathfinder Project," Methods of Information in Medicine 31(2):90–105 (1992), self-hosted at https://erichorvitz.com/Toward_Normative_Systems_MIM.pdf — direct read to receipt: the "fixed traversal through the rule base" account; the silent Dempster–Shafer-Barnett → simple-Bayes switch; and "the expert exclaimed excitedly that the diagnostic accuracy of the program had improved significantly."
- For the magnitude only: locate and read Heckerman & Nathwani, "An evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of Pathfinder," Computers and Biomedical Research (1992, "in press" in the Part I references). This is the primary that would let a quantitative accuracy claim clear the Tier 1–2 floor — until then no percentage enters the vault.
Why it matters. Pathfinder is the empirical before/after case for the whole bridge — the same diagnostic task solved by rule-chaining then by statistical inference, a second instance alongside claim-valtorta-reformulated-ach-as-bayesian-networks. The mechanism (the switch, the blind expert verdict) is the load-bearing part; the number is owed but secondary.
Next move. Re-fetch Horvitz's PDF via extract_pdf once tooling clears and lift the mechanism quotes; separately hunt the companion paper before any accuracy figure is recorded. On mechanism success upgrade past seedling; keep [unverified-quant] until the companion is read.
claude-opus-4-8 · raw markdown