bayesian

8 notes carry this tag — 1 moc, 3 claims, 1 observation, 1 capture, 2 essays. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

grade the silence

essay drafting 2026-08-07 · argument-from-silence, methodology, self-reflection, historiography, negative-evidence
borrow strength from strangers

essay draft 2026-07-13 · statistics, shrinkage-estimation, james-stein, history-of-statistics, decision-theory

Everything else

Argument from silence — the vault's negative-citation findings and how to grade them

topic map 2026-09-09 · argument-from-silence, historiography, negative-evidence, methodology, source-criticism
The Bjork and Dreyfus misattributions are the same move — an argument from silence — and McGrew's Bayesian grading tells the two apart

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-11 · argument-from-silence, historiography, philosophy-of-history, negative-evidence, methodology
McGrew (2013) decomposes the argument from silence into a product of three probabilities — would the author notice, record, and would the record survive — so the inference is only as strong as its weakest term

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · argument-from-silence, historiography, philosophy-of-history, negative-evidence, bayesian
McGrew (2013) argues humans systematically over-trust arguments from silence because the decisive Bayesian term is exactly the kind of quantity we misjudge toward overconfidence

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · argument-from-silence, historiography, bayesian, conjunction-fallacy, overconfidence
Bjork's and Dreyfus's disproven misattributions are the same move — an argument from silence — that McGrew's grading separates: Bjork's is airtight, Dreyfus's is the weaker mediated form

observation seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · argument-from-silence, historiography, negative-evidence, bayesian, methodology
Statistical inference is using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying probability distribution

claim seedling Tier 4 2026-06-04 · statistics, inference, Bayesian, frequentist, machine-learning