all tags

calibration

6 notes carry this tag — 3 claims, 2 captures, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

• 
  the bias was in the room
  essay drafting 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics

Everything else

• Intelligence analysts calibrated better than Tetlock's own famous forecasters — and Tetlock's 2025 AI benchmark finds LLMs still losing to expert humans
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics
• ForecastBench (2025) found expert human forecasters significantly outperformed the best-scoring LLM on live, unresolved forecasting questions
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, LLM-evaluation, benchmarks, calibration, epistemics
• Mandel & Barnes (2014) found Canadian intelligence analysts were underconfident, not overconfident, and their real-world forecasts explained far more outcome variance than Tetlock's landmark study
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, david-r-mandel
• The cross-entropy loss that trains LLMs is I.J. Good's 1952 logarithmic proper scoring rule
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-12 · proper-scoring-rules, cross-entropy, calibration, ij-good, history-of-ml
• One man — I.J. Good — authored both the LLM training loss and the intelligence-explosion idea, then recanted
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-11 · proper-scoring-rules, cross-entropy, intelligence-explosion, ij-good, ai-existential-risk