census-methodology

8 notes carry this tag — 6 claims, 2 captures. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

On Clemens's own reported results, the Mariel wage effect shrinks progressively as the race adjustment is loosened — roughly a third gone, then over half gone, then absent in the subsample where Miami's black share actually shifted

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Clemens's case for a race-interacted adjustment rests on a specific empirical claim: Miami's black wage-share composition (63%) differs sharply from Borjas's control cities (under 10%)

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
David Roodman's independent review found no statistically distinguishable 1980 trend break in Miami's wage series and called the census-composition explanation plausible — but it predates Clemens's race-interaction model and doesn't adjudicate it

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-19 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Capture: Does the Clemens & Hunt argument that Borjas's Mariel effect is a 1980 survey-methodology artifact hold against Borjas's timing rebuttal?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Borjas's timing rebuttal: the CPS Black-share jump was concentrated in one year (1979), while Miami's steepest low-skill wage drop came later (1981-1986), when the share was flat

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Whether the Mariel wage effect survives depends on which race-adjustment model is used: Borjas's simple adjustment barely moves his estimate, but a fully-interactive race model (which Borjas attributes to a Clemens blog reply) shrinks it toward zero in the March CPS

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
The Borjas Mariel wage effect may be an artifact of a 1980 survey-methodology change rather than immigration (Clemens & Hunt)

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact