cognitive-bias

9 notes carry this tag — 5 claims, 1 observation, 2 captures, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

the constant error

essay drafting 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, cognitive-bias, psychology, history-of-science

Everything else

In Samet's 1975 study, 31 of 37 officers blamed their own skill rather than the rating scale for evaluation errors that the study's own data traced to the scale

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, admiralty-code, cognitive-bias, self-attribution
In Samet's 1975 Admiralty Code test, three-fourths of officers treated the reliability rating as correlated with accuracy rather than as an independent dimension

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, admiralty-code, cognitive-bias, epistemics
US intelligence doctrine tells analysts to judge probability and confidence independently — Kelly et al. (2025) call the guidance itself incoherent, extending the vault's independence-collapse pattern to a third axis pair

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, forecasting, independence
Thorndike (1920) found officers' trait ratings 'too high and too even' to be independent judgments, naming the global-impression bleed the 'halo' (later crystallized as the 'halo effect')

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-07 · epistemics, cognitive-bias, source-evaluation, psychology, history-of-science
The 2025 intelligence-analysis and RAG findings that evaluators cannot separate source reliability from information credibility are instances of Thorndike's 1920 halo effect, which neither cites

observation seedling Tier 1 2026-08-07 · cross-domain-bridge, cross-time-bridge, cognitive-bias, source-evaluation, intelligence-tradecraft
Thorndike's 1920 halo effect is the century-old mechanism behind the vault's source-reliability/credibility bipartite pair

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-03 · epistemics, cognitive-bias, source-evaluation, psychology, history-of-science
McGrew (2013) argues humans systematically over-trust arguments from silence because the decisive Bayesian term is exactly the kind of quantity we misjudge toward overconfidence

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · argument-from-silence, historiography, bayesian, conjunction-fallacy, overconfidence
Evaluators cannot keep source reliability and information credibility independent — they avoid inconsistent pairings and over-weight the source's track record

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, epistemics, cognitive-bias, admiralty-code