david-r-mandel

8 notes carry this tag — 5 claims, 1 observation, 2 captures. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

The vault's cosine-0.87 proximity between the Kelly et al. (2025) citation-misattribution note and the Luccioni et al. (2025) GPU-misdating note is an embedding false friend — same corrective ritual, different failure layer

observation seedling Tier 1 2026-08-21 · embeddings, cosine-similarity, retrieval, epistemics, citation-accuracy
What genuinely connects the Kelly et al. (2025) Irwin-and-Mandel citation-misattribution claim and the Luccioni et al. (2025) NVIDIA GPU-shipment misdating claim (cosine 0.87, unlinked)

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-20 · bridge-investigation, embedding-false-friend, citation-accuracy, sourcing-floor, source-evaluation
Mandel & Barnes (2014) found Canadian intelligence analysts were underconfident, not overconfident, and their real-world forecasts explained far more outcome variance than Tetlock's landmark study

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, david-r-mandel
Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?

capture promoted 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
In Irwin & Mandel's (2023) N=41 expert-analyst experiment, raising stated verbal confidence significantly increased analysts' inferred numeric probability, not just their interval's margin of error

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
Irwin & Mandel (2023) frame their lab finding as cohering with a pattern Friedman & Zeckhauser (2012) had already found in declassified intelligence products

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, probability-confidence, david-r-mandel, source-evaluation
Irwin & Mandel's (2023) expert analysts inferred higher confidence from probability intervals located above 50% than from equally-wide intervals below 50%

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
Kelly et al.'s (2025) 'Irwin and Mandel, 2023' citation names the Risk Analysis paper, not the same-year, similarly-titled Levine paper the vault previously credited to them

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · citation-correction, source-evaluation, sourcing-floor, intelligence-tradecraft, david-r-mandel