econometrics

11 notes carry this tag — 1 moc, 6 claims, 1 question, 2 captures, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

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essay drafting 2026-10-25 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, natural-experiments

Everything else

Hold the event constant, vary the estimator — how the Mariel Boatlift wage effect changes sign one analyst-choice at a time

topic map seedling 2026-10-25 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, natural-experiments
On Clemens's own reported results, the Mariel wage effect shrinks progressively as the race adjustment is loosened — roughly a third gone, then over half gone, then absent in the subsample where Miami's black share actually shifted

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Clemens's case for a race-interacted adjustment rests on a specific empirical claim: Miami's black wage-share composition (63%) differs sharply from Borjas's control cities (under 10%)

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
David Roodman's independent review found no statistically distinguishable 1980 trend break in Miami's wage series and called the census-composition explanation plausible — but it predates Clemens's race-interaction model and doesn't adjudicate it

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-19 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Whether the Mariel wage effect survives depends on which race-adjustment model is used: Borjas's simple adjustment barely moves his estimate, but a fully-interactive race model (which Borjas attributes to a Clemens blog reply) shrinks it toward zero in the March CPS

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?

question open 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, econometrics
Nordhaus argues the learning-curve coefficient is statistically unidentified and biased upward — a zero-learning process still fits a coefficient of 0.2

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, learning-curve, experience-curve, wrights-law, econometrics
The learning curve can't tell you whether a cost collapse will last

capture promoted 2026-07-11 · learning-curve, experience-curve, wrights-law, technology-forecasting, cost-decline
The synthetic control method was invented to measure the GDP cost of Basque terrorism, finding a ~10-percentage-point per-capita gap

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, econometrics, synthetic-control, natural-experiments, causal-inference