ehrlich

4 notes carry this tag — 3 claims, 1 capture. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Julian Simon privately admitted his famous win over Paul Ehrlich was luck, one year before the public payoff

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, hedgehog-fox, epistemology, cold-war-science-adjacent
Julian Simon privately admitted in an October 1989 letter that his 1980 wager win partly reflected luck, a year before the public payoff

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, luck-vs-skill
Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB essay applies Isaiah Berlin's hedgehog/fox typology to Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich without citing Philip Tetlock's forecasting research

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · hedgehog-fox, forecasting, epistemology, ehrlich, julian-simon
Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB review concludes the Simon-Ehrlich wager tested neither man's actual thesis about population and resources

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, simon-ehrlich-wager