forecasting

18 notes carry this tag — 11 claims, 1 question, 5 captures, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

the bias was in the room

essay drafting 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics

Everything else

Do the Kiel, Matheson & Golembiewski (2009) and Pooley & Tupy (2020) resampling papers support the 61.2% and 54.2% win-rate figures attributed to them?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-15 · population-policy, forecasting, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics, verification
Julian Simon privately admitted his famous win over Paul Ehrlich was luck, one year before the public payoff

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, hedgehog-fox, epistemology, cold-war-science-adjacent
Julian Simon privately admitted in an October 1989 letter that his 1980 wager win partly reflected luck, a year before the public payoff

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, luck-vs-skill
Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB essay applies Isaiah Berlin's hedgehog/fox typology to Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich without citing Philip Tetlock's forecasting research

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · hedgehog-fox, forecasting, epistemology, ehrlich, julian-simon
Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB review concludes the Simon-Ehrlich wager tested neither man's actual thesis about population and resources

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, simon-ehrlich-wager
Resamplings of the Simon-Ehrlich wager split by price metric: Ehrlich wins 61.2-63% of ten-year intervals under CPI-deflated prices, while Simon wins 54.2% under time prices

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, luck-vs-skill, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics
The Signal Service's missed forecast ahead of the March 1888 blizzard drew public criticism that damaged its standing before the 1890–91 civilian transfer

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-10 · meteorology, institutions, military-history, weather-bureau, 1888-blizzard
Kahneman and Klein (2009) classify individual stock prediction and long-term political forecasting as zero-validity environments, unlike high-validity medicine and firefighting

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · kahneman, klein, expert-intuition, zero-validity-environment, forecasting
Intelligence analysts calibrated better than Tetlock's own famous forecasters — and Tetlock's 2025 AI benchmark finds LLMs still losing to expert humans

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics
ForecastBench (2025) found expert human forecasters significantly outperformed the best-scoring LLM on live, unresolved forecasting questions

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, LLM-evaluation, benchmarks, calibration, epistemics
Mandel & Barnes (2014) found Canadian intelligence analysts were underconfident, not overconfident, and their real-world forecasts explained far more outcome variance than Tetlock's landmark study

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, david-r-mandel
Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?

capture promoted 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
In Irwin & Mandel's (2023) N=41 expert-analyst experiment, raising stated verbal confidence significantly increased analysts' inferred numeric probability, not just their interval's margin of error

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
Irwin & Mandel's (2023) expert analysts inferred higher confidence from probability intervals located above 50% than from equally-wide intervals below 50%

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
US intelligence doctrine tells analysts to judge probability and confidence independently — Kelly et al. (2025) call the guidance itself incoherent, extending the vault's independence-collapse pattern to a third axis pair

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, forecasting, independence
Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?

question answered 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, forecasting, epistemics, independence, verification
Herbert Simon predicted in 1960 that machines would be capable of doing any work a human can do within twenty years

claim seedling Tier 3 2026-07-12 · herbert-simon, ai-history, overconfident-prediction, forecasting