independence

14 notes carry this tag — 1 moc, 5 claims, 1 observation, 2 questions, 4 captures, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

provided they are independent

essay drafting 2026-08-02 · condorcet, ensembles, llm, independence, voting-theory

Everything else

Verify the three primary sources behind the 'suspicious perfection' cluster: Fisher (1936) on Mendel, Maimonides on Sanhedrin unanimity, and Simonsohn's fabrication forensics

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-01 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, statistics, legal-history, history-of-science
Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?

capture promoted 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
In Irwin & Mandel's (2023) N=41 expert-analyst experiment, raising stated verbal confidence significantly increased analysts' inferred numeric probability, not just their interval's margin of error

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
Irwin & Mandel's (2023) expert analysts inferred higher confidence from probability intervals located above 50% than from equally-wide intervals below 50%

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
The two axes that won't stay independent — five fields split trust-in-the-source from trust-in-the-message, and the split keeps leaking

topic map 2026-08-10 · source-evaluation, epistemics, intelligence-tradecraft, admiralty-code, RAG
US intelligence doctrine tells analysts to judge probability and confidence independently — Kelly et al. (2025) call the guidance itself incoherent, extending the vault's independence-collapse pattern to a third axis pair

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, forecasting, independence
Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?

question answered 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, forecasting, epistemics, independence, verification
Condorcet's 1785 jury theorem: majority-vote accuracy rises with group size only if voters decide independently

claim seedling Tier 4 2026-08-02 · condorcet, voting-theory, epistemics, independence, jury-theorem
Lefort et al. (2024) found LLM ensembling produced only marginal sentiment-classification accuracy gains, attributed to non-independent errors that violate the Condorcet Jury Theorem's precondition

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-02 · condorcet, voting-theory, LLM, ensemble-learning, epistemics
Talmudic law (Mishneh Torah, Sanhedrin 9:1) holds that a unanimous guilty verdict in a capital case acquits the defendant

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-12 · research-integrity, legal-history, talmud, epistemology, independence
Evidential weight rests on independence — and its absence, appearing as excessive perfection, is itself a signature of defect

observation seedling Tier 3 2026-07-12 · epistemology, research-integrity, fraud-detection, legal-history, statistics
Verify the three primary sources behind the 'suspicious perfection' cluster: Fisher (1936) on Mendel, Maimonides on Sanhedrin unanimity, and Simonsohn's fabrication forensics

question answered 2026-07-12 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, legal-history, statistics, verification
Suspicious perfection: the same 'too clean to be true' rule underwrites both legal graded-proof and statistical fraud forensics

capture promoted Tier 2 2026-07-11 · epistemology, research-integrity, fraud-detection, legal-history, statistics