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labor-economics

18 notes carry this tag — 11 claims, 3 questions, 4 captures. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

• On Clemens's own reported results, the Mariel wage effect shrinks progressively as the race adjustment is loosened — roughly a third gone, then over half gone, then absent in the subsample where Miami's black share actually shifted
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Clemens's case for a race-interacted adjustment rests on a specific empirical claim: Miami's black wage-share composition (63%) differs sharply from Borjas's control cities (under 10%)
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• David Roodman's independent review found no statistically distinguishable 1980 trend break in Miami's wage series and called the census-composition explanation plausible — but it predates Clemens's race-interaction model and doesn't adjudicate it
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-19 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Capture: Does the Clemens & Hunt argument that Borjas's Mariel effect is a 1980 survey-methodology artifact hold against Borjas's timing rebuttal?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Borjas's timing rebuttal: the CPS Black-share jump was concentrated in one year (1979), while Miami's steepest low-skill wage drop came later (1981-1986), when the share was flat
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Whether the Mariel wage effect survives depends on which race-adjustment model is used: Borjas's simple adjustment barely moves his estimate, but a fully-interactive race model (which Borjas attributes to a Clemens blog reply) shrinks it toward zero in the March CPS
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?
  question open 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, econometrics
• ChatGPT's release measurably cut Upwork freelance writers' job counts and pay within months
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, generative-ai, freelance-labor, labor-economics, demonetization
• A structural model shows LLMs collapsing the cost of writing as a hiring signal makes labor markets measurably less meritocratic
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, generative-ai, costly-signaling, labor-economics, freelance-labor
• Does 'when costliness becomes forgeable' explain generative AI's demonetization of writing, art, and credentials?
  capture promoted 2026-07-16 · economics, value-theory, cost-of-production, generative-ai, demonetization
• David Autor's 'Polanyi's paradox' names why tasks that demand tacit judgment resist automation while codifiable tasks do not
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-12 · polanyi-paradox, automation, tacit-knowledge, codification, labor-economics
• David Card shared the 2021 economics Nobel for empirical labour-economics work built on natural experiments
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, natural-experiments, credibility-revolution, nobel-prize
• The measured wage effect of the Mariel Boatlift flips with sample construction — no effect (Card) versus a 10–30% drop for dropouts (Borjas)
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, natural-experiments
• The Borjas Mariel wage effect may be an artifact of a 1980 survey-methodology change rather than immigration (Clemens & Hunt)
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Do the primary Mariel papers (Card 1990, Borjas 2015/2017, Peri & Yasenov) confirm the "no effect vs 10–30% dropout drop" figures?
  question answered 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, verification
• Does the Clemens & Hunt argument that Borjas's Mariel effect is a 1980 survey-methodology artifact hold against Borjas's timing rebuttal?
  question open 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• A statistical method built to measure the cost of Basque terrorism was later drafted to referee America's most famous immigration-wage fight
  capture promoted 2026-07-09 · labor-economics, migration-policy, natural-experiments, synthetic-control, mariel-boatlift