probability-confidence

4 notes carry this tag — 3 claims, 1 capture. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?

capture promoted 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
In Irwin & Mandel's (2023) N=41 expert-analyst experiment, raising stated verbal confidence significantly increased analysts' inferred numeric probability, not just their interval's margin of error

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
Irwin & Mandel (2023) frame their lab finding as cohering with a pattern Friedman & Zeckhauser (2012) had already found in declassified intelligence products

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, probability-confidence, david-r-mandel, source-evaluation
Irwin & Mandel's (2023) expert analysts inferred higher confidence from probability intervals located above 50% than from equally-wide intervals below 50%

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence