selection-effects

7 notes carry this tag — 5 claims, 1 capture, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

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essay drafting 2026-08-08 · actuarial-history, insurance, institutional-history, mortality-tables, adoption-lag

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Ke et al. (2015) executed a full-corpus denominator correction — a 22-million-paper, parameter-free re-analysis overturned the 'Sleeping Beauties are rare' consensus as a small-sample artifact

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-31 · bibliometrics, scientometrics, survivorship-bias, selection-effects, delayed-vindication
Laudan's 1981 catalog of successful-but-false theories — the anti-realist denominator attempt — was challenged for not being big or representative enough within a few years, and that representativeness fight has stayed live since the 1980s

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-10-31 · philosophy-of-science, survivorship-bias, selection-effects, pessimistic-induction, scientific-realism
Peter Lewis (2001) stated that the full survey of past theories — true and false, successful and unsuccessful — needed to settle scientific realism has never been attempted, and suggested why

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-10-31 · philosophy-of-science, survivorship-bias, selection-effects, pessimistic-induction, scientific-realism
Magnus & Callender (2004) argue the no-miracles argument and the pessimistic induction both commit a base-rate fallacy — the vault's denominator problem in formal Bayesian dress, generalized to all of science

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-31 · philosophy-of-science, survivorship-bias, selection-effects, base-rate-fallacy, scientific-realism
Has anyone applied a formal survivorship-bias correction to "theory preceded its confirming observation by N decades" narratives in the history of science generally?

capture promoted 2026-10-25 · philosophy-of-science, survivorship-bias, selection-effects, base-rate-fallacy, scientific-realism
The Amicable Society's own 1811 mortality experience was the first data on assured lives available to actuaries, and it was more favourable than the Northampton table

claim budding Tier 2 2026-07-25 · actuarial-history, insurance, institutional-history, mortality-tables, selection-effects