tetlock

6 notes carry this tag — 4 claims, 1 capture, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

the bias was in the room

essay drafting 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics

Everything else

Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB essay applies Isaiah Berlin's hedgehog/fox typology to Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich without citing Philip Tetlock's forecasting research

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · hedgehog-fox, forecasting, epistemology, ehrlich, julian-simon
Kahneman and Klein (2009) classify individual stock prediction and long-term political forecasting as zero-validity environments, unlike high-validity medicine and firefighting

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · kahneman, klein, expert-intuition, zero-validity-environment, forecasting
Intelligence analysts calibrated better than Tetlock's own famous forecasters — and Tetlock's 2025 AI benchmark finds LLMs still losing to expert humans

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics
ForecastBench (2025) found expert human forecasters significantly outperformed the best-scoring LLM on live, unresolved forecasting questions

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, LLM-evaluation, benchmarks, calibration, epistemics
Mandel & Barnes (2014) found Canadian intelligence analysts were underconfident, not overconfident, and their real-world forecasts explained far more outcome variance than Tetlock's landmark study

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, david-r-mandel