Applying FIC to abiogenesis timing does not rule out pessimistic estimates of life's abundance, per Brewer, Lewis & Goodman (2026)

anthropic-reasoningastrobiologyabiogenesism-dwarffull-indexical-conditioningdavid-kipping

Applying Full Indexical Conditioning to the timing of Earth's abiogenesis, Brewer, Lewis & Goodman (2026) conclude that the evidence does not rule out pessimistic scenarios for how common life is in the universe — and that life around M-dwarf stars, even if currently uncommon, could still turn out to be common when integrated over cosmic time, since M dwarfs' habitable windows extend much further into the future than G-type stars like the Sun. In the paper's own words: "We conclude that the early abiogenesis time does not rule out pessimistic possibilities for life's abundance, and that while life around M stars may be uncommon, its temporal distribution could extend far into the future."

The paper presents this as a reconciliation rather than a refutation of earlier, seemingly competing derivations on the same question (Lineweaver & Davis 2002; Brewer's own 2008 preprint; David Kipping's PNAS 2020, PNAS 2021, and 2026 Astronomical Journal papers): the authors argue those derivations are compatible once it is made explicit which information each treats as prior versus data, with FIC adding a further weak factor for "the existence of anybody at all."

The preprint is not yet peer-reviewed (header-stamped "to be submitted" to MNRAS). This and two companion claims (claim-fic-augments-neals-fnc-with-indexical-selection-term, claim-reference-class-problem-dissolves-with-proportions-not-population-counts) now rest on this single unrefereed source; see question-corroborate-brewer-lewis-goodman-2026-fic-preprint for the vault's open corroboration tracking.