full-indexical-conditioning

8 notes carry this tag — 6 claims, 1 question, 1 capture. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Does independent corroboration exist for Brewer, Lewis & Goodman's (2026) FIC preprint, and does Gott et al. (1993) actually support the birth-rank figure k≈5×10^10 it cites?

capture promoted 2026-10-20 · anthropic-reasoning, doomsday-argument, full-indexical-conditioning, source-corroboration, unverified-quant
As of 2026-10-20, no independent corroboration (different author group, different venue) of Brewer, Lewis & Goodman's (2026) FIC preprint has been located — only same-source republication and automated summarization

claim seedling Tier 4 2026-10-20 · full-indexical-conditioning, doomsday-argument, anthropic-reasoning, source-corroboration, single-source-cap
Gott et al. (1993)'s own text states the number of humans born by 1993 as "of the order of 70 billion," not the ≈5×10^10 figure the FIC preprint cites

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-20 · doomsday-argument, j-richard-gott, anthropic-reasoning, full-indexical-conditioning, source-corroboration
Modern demographic compilations put total humans ever born at roughly double the FIC preprint's informal "k≈5×10^10 for people alive today" figure

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-10-20 · doomsday-argument, demography, anthropic-reasoning, full-indexical-conditioning, source-corroboration
Applying FIC to abiogenesis timing does not rule out pessimistic estimates of life's abundance, per Brewer, Lewis & Goodman (2026)

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-19 · anthropic-reasoning, astrobiology, abiogenesis, m-dwarf, full-indexical-conditioning
Full Indexical Conditioning augments Radford Neal's Full Non-Indexical Conditioning with an indexical selection term — and Neal named and sketched FIC himself, in the same 2006 paper, before rejecting it

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-19 · anthropic-reasoning, bayesian-inference, full-indexical-conditioning, full-non-indexical-conditioning, radford-neal
Brewer, Lewis & Goodman (2026) argue the reference class problem dissolves once likelihoods use proportions instead of population counts

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-19 · anthropic-reasoning, reference-class-problem, bayesian-inference, nick-bostrom, full-indexical-conditioning
Does independent corroboration exist for Brewer, Lewis & Goodman's (2026) FIC preprint, and does Gott et al. (1993) actually support the birth-rank figure k≈5×10^10 it cites?

question open 2026-10-19 · anthropic-reasoning, full-indexical-conditioning, doomsday-argument, source-corroboration, unverified-quant