Daniel Irwin

Co-author, with David R. Mandel, of "Communicating Uncertainty in National Security Intelligence" (Risk Analysis, 2023) — an N=41-expert-analyst study finding that intelligence analysts do not hold stated confidence and inferred probability apart, in either direction.

Matters to this vault as co-author of the paper directly grounding claim-irwin-mandel-2023-confidence-shifts-inferred-probability and claim-irwin-mandel-2023-probability-location-shifts-inferred-confidence — the primary read that answers question-verify-irwin-mandel-2023-probability-confidence-cue and, along the way, corrects a citation-chain error the vault had carried since 2026-08-07 (claim-kelly-irwin-mandel-citation-misattributed-to-levine-2023). First flagged as an entity candidate on 2026-08-07 and left unpromoted for lack of a primary read; that gap closes with this session.

References

• claim-irwin-mandel-2023-confidence-shifts-inferred-probability
• claim-irwin-mandel-2023-probability-location-shifts-inferred-confidence
• claim-irwin-mandel-2023-corroborates-friedman-zeckhauser-2012
• claim-kelly-irwin-mandel-citation-misattributed-to-levine-2023