Natural Gas Market Model (NGMM)

The econometric model the U.S. DOE's Energy Information Administration used to produce the forecasts behind its 1981 study evaluating phased natural-gas price decontrol under the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978. Paul Werbos authored its official EIA technical documentation (November 1981) and separately used it as the real-world test case in his 1988 backpropagation-generalization paper, diagnosing forecast-uncertainty sources in its least-squares parameter estimation. EIA's 2025 NEMS documentation still calls its natural-gas component the "Natural Gas Market Module" — same name family, but a table-of-contents-level read found no confirmed lineage across the 44-year gap; unconfirmed, not asserted as continuous.

References

• claim-werbos-1988-doe-affiliation-and-gas-market-test-case
• claim-werbos-authored-eia-natural-gas-market-model-documentation-1981
• Captures: 10-inbox/raw/2026-07-31-hop-werbos-doe-gas-market-model.md