Werbos authored the U.S. EIA's official 1981 technical documentation for the Natural Gas Market Model his own 1988 paper later diagnosed

An OSTI.GOV technical-report record lists "The Natural Gas Market Model: Equations and data sources," authored by P.J. Werbos, published by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (Office of Statistical Standards) in November 1981. The record describes the report as documentation of the primary model used to produce the forecasts discussed in EIA's 1981 study evaluating the phased natural-gas price decontrol under the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 — written to meet EIA's own internal replication-documentation standard for the models behind its published forecasts.

This means Paul Werbos's relationship to the Natural Gas Market Model was not that of an outside researcher borrowing a convenient dataset: he was the named federal author of the model's official equations-and-data-sources documentation, three years before his 1988 paper used that same model to diagnose forecast-uncertainty sources in the least-squares parameter estimation. The same person wrote the model's government paper trail and later, in a peer-reviewed AI journal, audited its statistical weaknesses.