Werbos authored the U.S. EIA's official 1981 technical documentation for the Natural Gas Market Model his own 1988 paper later diagnosed

werbosdepartment-of-energynatural-gas-market-modelenergy-policynatural-gas-deregulationhistory-of-ml

An OSTI.GOV technical-report record lists "The Natural Gas Market Model: Equations and data sources," authored by P.J. Werbos, published by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (Office of Statistical Standards) in November 1981 (report DOE/EIA-0355). The record's abstract (read via WebFetch; paraphrased, not quoted verbatim, per the sources.md quote-provenance rule) describes the report as documentation of the Natural Gas Market Model, the primary model used to produce the forecasts in EIA's August 1981 analysis paper on the economic effects of accelerated deregulation of natural gas prices — the record's "Deregulation Study" — written because EIA's standards require models be documented in enough detail to permit replication, and produced from a line-by-line audit of the model code, interviews with the developers, and a replication of the model in the Troll system. (The record itself does not mention the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978; that statutory backdrop is vault context, not the record's wording.)

This means Paul Werbos's relationship to the Natural Gas Market Model was not that of an outside researcher borrowing a convenient dataset: he was the named federal author of the model's official equations-and-data-sources documentation, three years before his 1988 paper used that same model to diagnose forecast-uncertainty sources in the least-squares parameter estimation. The same person wrote the model's government paper trail and later, in a peer-reviewed AI journal, audited its statistical weaknesses.