estimative-probability

3 notes carry this tag — 2 claims, 1 capture. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Icard's 2023 honesty×truth taxonomy crosses an axis that exists in neither of its two named comparison primaries, read on their own terms

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-06 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, vagueness, estimative-probability, source-evaluation
Sherman Kent's 1964 'Words of Estimative Probability' proposes a single-dimension words-to-odds scale, with no axis for source honesty or reliability

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-10-06 · intelligence-tradecraft, estimative-probability, sherman-kent, source-evaluation, primary-source-verification
Does Paul Égré's 2018 chapter (on the Indeterminate/Imprecise axis Icard's 2023 taxonomy traces to) or Sherman Kent's 1964 estimative-probability report, read directly, change how the honesty/informativeness axis should be read — and does either clear the entity-hub bar this vault declined for both of them, for the identical reason, in one week?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-10-03 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, vagueness, estimative-probability, source-evaluation