judgment-under-uncertainty

4 notes carry this tag — 3 claims, 1 capture. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Kahneman and Klein (2009) trace overconfidence to subjective confidence tracking the internal consistency of the evidence rather than its quality

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · kahneman, klein, overconfidence, expert-intuition, evidence-quality
Kahneman and Klein (2009) hold that true skill cannot develop in low-validity environments, and that subjective confidence never reliably distinguishes valid intuitions from invalid ones

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · kahneman, klein, expert-intuition, low-validity-environment, illusion-of-validity
What does Kahneman & Klein (2009) actually say about intuition failing in low-validity environments?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-12 · kahneman, klein, expert-intuition, low-validity-environment, judgment-under-uncertainty
Kahneman and Klein (2009) argue skilled intuition can develop only where a high-validity environment and adequate opportunity to learn it both hold

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-12 · kahneman, klein, expert-intuition, low-validity-environment, judgment-under-uncertainty