Kahneman and Klein (2009) hold that true skill cannot develop in low-validity environments, and that subjective confidence never reliably distinguishes valid intuitions from invalid ones

kahnemankleinexpert-intuitionlow-validity-environmentillusion-of-validityoverconfidencejudgment-under-uncertaintycognitive-psychology

In "Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree," Kahneman and Klein state that the failure mode of intuition in low- and zero-validity domains is not that judgment becomes actively worse or more systematically biased, but that genuine skill has no structure to form against — while the subjective feeling of a confident intuition persists regardless. "Although true skill cannot develop in irregular or unpredictable environments, individuals will sometimes make judgments and decisions that are successful by chance. These 'lucky' individuals will be susceptible to an illusion of skill and to overconfidence." A correct-by-chance judgment is, subjectively, indistinguishable from an earned one.

The paper generalizes this beyond low-validity cases into a claim about confidence as such: "Subjective confidence is therefore an unreliable indication of the validity of intuitive judgments and decisions," and "people do not have a strong ability to distinguish correct intuitions from faulty ones."

This is the positive-condition claim's mirror image: skilled intuition requires a high-validity environment plus adequate learning (claim-kahneman-klein-2009-intuition-reliable-only-in-high-validity-environments); where the first condition fails, no amount of practice or confidence substitutes for it. It is also the primary-source correction to that note's original paraphrase — "confident intuition becomes systematic error" is not the paper's own language; the paper's narrower claim is that skill does not form and confidence does not discriminate. The causal account of why confidence misleads is separate: see claim-kahneman-klein-2009-confidence-tracks-internal-consistency-not-evidence-quality. The scope condition it places on Simon's "intuition is recognition" is the mechanism used in observation-simon-intuition-framework-diagnoses-perceptron-sterility-conjecture.