LLM-evaluation

3 notes carry this tag — 1 claim, 1 capture, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

the bias was in the room

essay drafting 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics

Everything else

Intelligence analysts calibrated better than Tetlock's own famous forecasters — and Tetlock's 2025 AI benchmark finds LLMs still losing to expert humans

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics
ForecastBench (2025) found expert human forecasters significantly outperformed the best-scoring LLM on live, unresolved forecasting questions

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, LLM-evaluation, benchmarks, calibration, epistemics