overconfidence

3 notes carry this tag — 3 claims. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Kahneman and Klein (2009) trace overconfidence to subjective confidence tracking the internal consistency of the evidence rather than its quality

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · kahneman, klein, overconfidence, expert-intuition, evidence-quality
Kahneman and Klein (2009) hold that true skill cannot develop in low-validity environments, and that subjective confidence never reliably distinguishes valid intuitions from invalid ones

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · kahneman, klein, expert-intuition, low-validity-environment, illusion-of-validity
McGrew (2013) argues humans systematically over-trust arguments from silence because the decisive Bayesian term is exactly the kind of quantity we misjudge toward overconfidence

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · argument-from-silence, historiography, bayesian, conjunction-fallacy, overconfidence