all tags

statistics

35 notes carry this tag — 1 moc, 18 claims, 1 observation, 4 questions, 9 captures, 2 essays. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

• 
  borrow strength from strangers
  essay draft 2026-07-13 · statistics, shrinkage-estimation, james-stein, history-of-statistics, decision-theory
• 
  The noise is the evidence
  essay draft 2026-07-13 · epistemology, research-integrity, fraud-detection, cross-domain-bridge, statistics

Everything else

• Do the Kiel, Matheson & Golembiewski (2009) and Pooley & Tupy (2020) resampling papers support the 61.2% and 54.2% win-rate figures attributed to them?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-15 · population-policy, forecasting, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics, verification
• Resamplings of the Simon-Ehrlich wager split by price metric: Ehrlich wins 61.2-63% of ten-year intervals under CPI-deflated prices, while Simon wins 54.2% under time prices
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, luck-vs-skill, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics
• Do the Kiel, Matheson & Golembiewski (2009) and Pooley & Tupy (2020) resampling papers support the 61.2% and 54.2% win-rate figures attributed to them?
  question open 2026-09-14 · verification, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics, unverified-quant
• A 2013 'coin-size estimation' study was retracted after Simonsohn's forensics found its per-condition values too similar across experiments to be random samples (p<.000025)
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, statistics, data-colada, replication
• Does the measurement-theory or statistics literature already name the general pattern behind the Garfield/Seglen and Steck/Ekanadham/Kallus warnings — a scalar aggregate substituted for a property it cannot measure?
  capture promoted 2026-09-01 · measurement-theory, construct-validity, ecological-fallacy, garfield, seglen
• Verify the three primary sources behind the 'suspicious perfection' cluster: Fisher (1936) on Mendel, Maimonides on Sanhedrin unanimity, and Simonsohn's fabrication forensics
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-01 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, statistics, legal-history, history-of-science
• W. S. Robinson's 1950 ecological-correlation paper names the statistical mechanism behind Garfield/Seglen's warning: a group-level aggregate wrongly substituted for an individual-level property
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-01 · ecological-fallacy, measurement-theory, garfield, seglen, statistics
• Can 1979 Moscow Helsinki Monitoring Group Document No. 112 ('Discrimination against Jews entering the university') be located and read, to confirm it — not 'Intellectual Genocide' — is the true source of the Mekh-mat 47-vs-40 admission table?
  capture promoted 2026-08-22 · history-of-mathematics, soviet-union, antisemitism, academia, institutions
• Intellectual Genocide's 1980 MFTI admission figures (53/39 non-Jewish, 32/4 Jewish) match A. Shen's 1994 reproduction of them exactly
  claim budding Tier 1 2026-08-21 · history-of-mathematics, soviet-union, antisemitism, academia, institutions
• Intellectual Genocide's MIFI Group 1 admitted count (36) conflicts with Shen's 1994 table (26); the primary document's own internal arithmetic favors its own 36
  claim budding Tier 1 2026-08-21 · history-of-mathematics, soviet-union, antisemitism, academia, institutions
• The Mekh-mat 47-vs-40 admission table is not contained in 'Intellectual Genocide' (1980); its likelier documentary origin is the 1979 Moscow Helsinki Group's Document No. 112
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-21 · history-of-mathematics, soviet-union, antisemitism, academia, institutions
• Do Lewis & Postol (1993) state verbatim that the videos show no unambiguous evidence Patriot destroyed even one Scud warhead, and that the Army's claim fell to 52% with only 40% 'highest confidence'?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-14 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, mit, verification-method, source-verification
• The number that outran its evidence — the Patriot's Gulf War success rate, and how it fell from 96% to ~9% under public-data review
  topic map 2026-08-13 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, congressional-oversight, verification-method
• Bayesian networks are the real mechanism bridging classic AI rule-based inference engines and statistical inference — built to replace expert systems' ad hoc certainty-factor arithmetic with coherent probabilistic inference
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-10 · inference, expert-systems, bayesian-networks, mycin, certainty-factors
• Did GAO/NSIAD-92-340 find that only about 9% of claimed Patriot Scud kills met its 'strongest evidence' standard?
  capture promoted Tier 2 2026-08-07 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, statistics, military-engineering
• GAO found the Army's Patriot kill claims rested on an internally inconsistent spreadsheet and a ground-damage survey covering only about a third of Saudi engagements
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-07 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, military-engineering, verification-method
• GAO/NSIAD-92-340 found 'strong evidence' supported a Patriot warhead kill in only about 9% of the engagements the Army claimed as kills
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-07 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, statistics, military-engineering
• GAO/NSIAD-92-340 graded its Patriot kill evidence in two tiers: a 'strong evidence' tier (~9%) and a non-probative 'lesser evidence' tier (~16%)
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-07 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, statistics, verification-method
• House Report 102-1086 independently reached the same ~9% Patriot warhead-kill figure, using the Army's own methodology and evidence
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-07 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, congressional-oversight, statistics
• Chazal et al. (2014) prove subsampled persistence-diagram estimators are stable under noise and outliers — not under selection by a structural covariate
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-22 · persistent-homology, topological-data-analysis, subsampling, sampling-artifact, statistics
• R. A. Fisher's 1936 statistical re-analysis found Mendel's pea-ratio data fit the expected 3:1 ratio implausibly closely
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-12 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, statistics, history-of-science, mendel
• Uri Simonsohn's data-forensics method flags fabricated research data via 'excessive similarity' inconsistent with random sampling
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-12 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, statistics, data-colada, replication
• Evidential weight rests on independence — and its absence, appearing as excessive perfection, is itself a signature of defect
  observation seedling Tier 3 2026-07-12 · epistemology, research-integrity, fraud-detection, legal-history, statistics
• Verify the three primary sources behind the 'suspicious perfection' cluster: Fisher (1936) on Mendel, Maimonides on Sanhedrin unanimity, and Simonsohn's fabrication forensics
  question answered 2026-07-12 · research-integrity, fraud-detection, legal-history, statistics, verification
• Suspicious perfection: the same 'too clean to be true' rule underwrites both legal graded-proof and statistical fraud forensics
  capture promoted Tier 2 2026-07-11 · epistemology, research-integrity, fraud-detection, legal-history, statistics
• In Efron's 1970 batting-average example, James-Stein shrinkage roughly halved the total squared error of predicting rest-of-season performance
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · statistics, shrinkage-estimation, james-stein, empirical-bayes, baseball
• The James-Stein estimator uniformly dominates the sample mean under squared-error loss, making the MLE inadmissible in three or more dimensions
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · statistics, shrinkage-estimation, decision-theory, james-stein, empirical-bayes
• The U.S. Army's claimed Patriot Gulf War success rate fell from a wartime 96% to a later 52% warhead-destruction claim, only 40% of it 'highest confidence'
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, mit, verification-method, military-engineering
• Do Efron & Hastie's CASI Ch. 7 confirm the James-Stein domination statement and the .0425 vs .0218 baseball SSE figures?
  question answered 2026-07-11 · statistics, shrinkage-estimation, james-stein, verification, quant-check
• Did GAO/NSIAD-92-340 find that only about 9% of claimed Patriot Scud kills met its 'strongest evidence' standard?
  question answered 2026-07-11 · patriot-missile, gulf-war, gao-report, statistics, source-verification
• Stein's paradox: pooling unrelated estimates provably beats each one's own best guess, and its discoverer spent five years dodging the Bayesian argument that explains it
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-09 · statistics, empirical-bayes, shrinkage-estimation, decision-theory, history-of-statistics
• Robbins and Monro 1951 founded stochastic approximation — the method family SGD belongs to — as root-finding from noisy experiments
  claim budding Tier 1 2026-07-07 · sgd, stochastic-approximation, robbins-monro, history-of-ml, statistics
• Statistical inference is using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying probability distribution
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-06-04 · statistics, inference, Bayesian, frequentist, machine-learning