Hotelling's rule

The classical theoretical claim, from Harold Hotelling's 1931 model of exhaustible-resource extraction, that the shadow price of a depletable resource must rise at the rate of interest under optimal extraction — a smooth, continuous appreciation driven by an intertemporal arbitrage condition, not by production cost. First flagged in the vault as a missing counterpoint to the unforgeable-costliness cluster before a primary source existed for it; Slade and Thille's review supplied that source.

References

• claim-hotellings-rule-shadow-price-rises-at-rate-of-interest · claim-hotellings-rule-predicts-shape-distinct-from-cost-of-production-cluster · claim-hotelling-model-frequently-rejected-by-empirical-commodity-data
• claim-asteroid-pgm-price-holds-then-collapses · claim-cheaper-extraction-disruptions-fall-monotonically-not-hold-then-collapse · observation-unforgeable-costliness-bridges-asteroid-pgm-and-bit-gold
• Captures: 10-inbox/raw/2026-07-16-does-hotellings-rule-for-exhaustible-resource-pricing-predict.md