Real cheaper-extraction disruptions (aluminium, AI inference) have fallen monotonically, not on the hold-then-collapse curve predicted for asteroid-mined PGM

The vault holds a model prediction — claim-asteroid-pgm-price-holds-then-collapses — that a commodity's price holds near its old level until nearly all supply has shifted to a radically cheaper extraction method, then collapses toward the new cost floor. Checked against the two clearest real-world cases of a "radically cheaper extraction method" becoming available, this shape does not appear: both fell continuously across the whole transition. claim-aluminium-price-fell-monotonically-after-hall-heroult traces a decade-long slide after the Hall-Héroult process, with no reported plateau. claim-inference-cost-collapsed-280x shows AI inference cost fell roughly 280x between late 2022 and late 2024 — also a continuous decline, driven partly by direct price competition among providers rather than capacity-constrained suppliers holding margin at an anchored price.

The proposed governing mechanism for the monotonic shape is claim-wrights-law-cost-falls-per-cumulative-production-doubling: unit cost, and under competition price, falls a constant fraction per doubling of cumulative production, so the decline runs continuously across the transition instead of pausing.

This does not falsify the PGM model on its own terms — see that note for the specific condition it requires ("deployment lag": an effectively unlimited reserve behind a capacity-constrained delivery channel, letting space suppliers — the paper expects follow-on entrants, not a lone firm — hold margin at the terrestrial-anchored price rather than undercut it). But it does mean the historical analogy the modeling question itself named — aluminium after Hall-Héroult — does not exhibit the predicted shape. Competitive, multi-entrant scaling disruptions fall under Wright's law instead; the hold-then-collapse shape needs the more restrictive capacity-gated, terrestrial-anchored condition the PGM paper assumes, not mere "cost of extraction drops a lot."

[unverified — inherits flags]. This synthesis rests on two flagged sub-claims — the aluminium figures ([unverified-quant]) and the Wright's-law mechanism ([unverified-mechanism]) — plus the already-flagged PGM model. It stays seedling until those resolve; see question-verify-aluminium-price-history-primary-source and question-verify-wrights-law-primary-source.