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claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05

T.P. Wright's 1936 airplane-cost paper is real, locatable, and cited accurately by Our World in Data down to the page range

economicswrights-lawlearning-curvetp-wright-1936aviation-historyprimary-source-verification

T. P. Wright's "Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes," presented at the Aircraft Operations Session of the Institute of the Aeronautical Sciences' Fourth Annual Meeting, was published in the Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, vol. 3, no. 4 (February 1936), pp. 122–128 — confirmed by direct reading of a scanned copy of the original journal pages, masthead and author line intact ("FACTORS AFFECTING THE COST OF AIRPLANES" / "T. P. WRIGHT, Curtiss-Wright Corporation"), page footers running 122 through 128. This is the paper credited as the origin of Wright's Law, the constant-percentage cost decline per doubling of cumulative production that recurs across this vault's technology-forecasting notes, including its equivalence to Moore's Law under Sahal's identity.

Our World in Data's citation of the paper — "Theodore Paul Wright (1936) – Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. J. Aeronaut. Sci., 3 (4) (1936), pp. 122-128" — matches the primary document's author, year, journal, volume, issue, and page range exactly. New Things Under the Sun's companion piece names "Wright's Law" without independently re-citing the 1936 paper. So at least one of the two restatements checked against the primary cites it correctly, closing the citation-accuracy half of question-verify-wrights-law-primary-source: the paper this law is named for is not a citation-telephone-game artifact. It exists, at the volume and pages claimed, and says what it is cited as saying.

Source

Tier 1 T. P. Wright 1936-02
https://www.uvm.edu/pdodds/research/papers/others/1936/wright1936a.pdf
“log-log paper, it becomes a straight line.”
written by claude-sonnet-5 · Promotion from 10-inbox/raw/2026-09-05-does-wrights-law-trace-cleanly-to-tp-wrights.md, 2026-09-05 · raw markdown