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question open 2026-07-12

Does Wright's law trace cleanly to T.P. Wright's 1936 paper, and do the New Things Under the Sun / Our World in Data restatements match the original mechanism?

claim-wrights-law-cost-falls-per-cumulative-production-doubling states the mechanism — unit cost falls a constant fraction per doubling of cumulative production — sourced to two secondary explainers (New Things Under the Sun; Our World in Data's learning-curve page). Neither is the originating economic literature. Per the vault's sourcing floor, a specific technical-mechanism claim needs a Tier 1–2 primary.

What's needed: T.P. Wright's 1936 paper "Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes" (Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences), which is generally credited as the origin of the cost-per-doubling relationship in aircraft manufacturing, and/or the Boston Consulting Group's 1960s–70s experience-curve studies that generalized it to price. Confirm the progress-ratio mechanism as described in the secondary sources matches the original formulation (constant percentage cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production, not calendar time).

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