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economics

79 notes carry this tag — 1 moc, 49 claims, 3 observations, 11 questions, 15 captures. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

• Does Wright's law trace cleanly to T.P. Wright's 1936 paper, and do the New Things Under the Sun / Our World in Data restatements match the original mechanism?
  capture promoted 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, experience-curve, tp-wright-1936
• Wright's own 1936 formula is a power law of cumulative production quantity, log-log linear — not a function of calendar time
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, cost-curves
• T.P. Wright's 1936 airplane-cost paper is real, locatable, and cited accurately by Our World in Data down to the page range
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, aviation-history
• Wright's 1936 paper reports four distinct learning curves, not one flat 80% — the whole-airplane composite rises from 83% to 90% as quantity scales
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, cost-curves
• Wright's own '80% curve' is defined over a whole production lot's average cost, not an individual unit's cost — a distinction the modern restatements drop
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, cost-curves
• William Vickrey died three days after his 1996 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was announced, fitting the Foundation's post-1974 posthumous exception
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-23 · nobel-prize, institutional-rules, posthumous-award, william-vickrey, economics
• On Clemens's own reported results, the Mariel wage effect shrinks progressively as the race adjustment is loosened — roughly a third gone, then over half gone, then absent in the subsample where Miami's black share actually shifted
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Clemens's case for a race-interacted adjustment rests on a specific empirical claim: Miami's black wage-share composition (63%) differs sharply from Borjas's control cities (under 10%)
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• David Roodman's independent review found no statistically distinguishable 1980 trend break in Miami's wage series and called the census-composition explanation plausible — but it predates Clemens's race-interaction model and doesn't adjudicate it
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-08-20 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-19 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• David & Brachet (2011) decompose organizational forgetting into a continuous skill-decay channel and a discrete turnover-loss channel
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · organizational-forgetting, learning-curve, catastrophic-forgetting, cross-domain-bridge, economics
• David & Brachet (2011) find labor turnover contributes twice the organizational forgetting that skill decay does
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · organizational-forgetting, economics, quantitative, learning-curve
• Capture: Does the Clemens & Hunt argument that Borjas's Mariel effect is a 1980 survey-methodology artifact hold against Borjas's timing rebuttal?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Borjas's timing rebuttal: the CPS Black-share jump was concentrated in one year (1979), while Miami's steepest low-skill wage drop came later (1981-1986), when the share was flat
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Whether the Mariel wage effect survives depends on which race-adjustment model is used: Borjas's simple adjustment barely moves his estimate, but a fully-interactive race model (which Borjas attributes to a Clemens blog reply) shrinks it toward zero in the March CPS
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Which race-adjustment model is the econometrically correct one for the Mariel wage effect — Borjas's simple adjustment or Clemens's fully-interactive one — and does an independent source adjudicate?
  question open 2026-07-29 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, econometrics
• Does Benkard (2000) report the organizational-forgetting depreciation rate (~0.96 monthly, ~61% of experience surviving a year) that the L-1011 learning-reversal claim rests on?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-24 · economics, learning-curve, organizational-forgetting, aircraft-manufacturing, benkard
• Benkard's (2000) L-1011 depreciation estimate implies far less organizational forgetting than the two prior studies his specification builds on
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-24 · economics, learning-curve, organizational-forgetting, aircraft-manufacturing, benkard
• Benkard's (2000) headline 0.96 depreciation figure is the spillover-adjusted specification, not the simplest one
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-24 · economics, learning-curve, organizational-forgetting, aircraft-manufacturing, benkard
• Does the 'Statistics' section (~p.35) of Richards' 1896 Aluminium monograph contain the $2/lb-1889 and $0.5/lb-1894 figures Hanners attributes to it?
  capture promoted Tier 1 — see per-claim fields 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• The AstroForge PGM paper reports the same hold-then-collapse shape under two different demand assumptions — constant demand in its back-of-envelope table, price-responsive demand in its full simulation
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, system-dynamics, price-dynamics
• The AstroForge PGM model's price-holds mechanism is a stated modeling assumption — the market price stays anchored to terrestrial supply cost as long as any terrestrial supply remains — not derived from an independent equilibrium argument
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, system-dynamics, price-dynamics
• The AstroForge PGM model structures supply into three cost tiers cleared through Vensim's FIND MARKET PRICE function, driven by a named reinforcing/balancing feedback-loop pair ("R1 Gold Rush" / "B2 Falling Price")
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, system-dynamics, vensim
• Richards' 1896 'Statistics' table (p. 35) confirms Hanners' $2/lb-1889 and $0.50/lb-1894 aluminium price figures verbatim
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• Richards' 1896 table's 1889–1894 aluminium prices are one continuous Pittsburgh series, not a stitched multi-source splice
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• Richards' 1896 price table has no entry at all for 1884
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-23 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• Does the AstroForge PGM system-dynamics model actually produce the 'price holds then collapses' shape, and under what assumptions?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-22 · economics, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, system-dynamics, price-dynamics
• Richards' own 1896 preface gives $12/lb (~1885) falling to $0.50/lb (late 1895) — a different pair of figures than the popular $16/1884-to-$0.5/1894 sequence
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-22 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• Skrabec and Lockwood give contradictory 1884 aluminium-vs-silver price relationships for the same event
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-22 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• USGS's official historical aluminium price series has no data for 1884, 1888–1894 — the exact years the popular price-collapse figures depend on
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-22 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• Wikipedia's Hall-Héroult aluminium price sequence splices two unrelated secondary sources, not one continuous series
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-07-22 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, sourcing
• Does the 'Statistics' section (~p.35) of Richards' 1896 Aluminium monograph contain the $2/lb-1889 and $0.5/lb-1894 figures Hanners attributes to it?
  question answered 2026-07-22 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, hall-heroult
• What primary source supports the Hall-Héroult era aluminium price figures ($16/lb 1884 → $2/lb 1889 → $0.5/lb 1894)?
  capture promoted Tier mixed — see per-claim fields 2026-07-21 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, price-history, sourcing
• ChatGPT's release measurably cut Upwork freelance writers' job counts and pay within months
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, generative-ai, freelance-labor, labor-economics, demonetization
• Generative AI availability during coursework compresses university grade distributions, eroding grades' value as a hiring signal
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, generative-ai, higher-education, credentials, signaling-theory
• The simple Hotelling model's rising-price prediction is frequently rejected by empirical tests of real commodity data
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, resource-economics, hotelling-rule, empirical-testing, commodity-markets
• Hotelling's rule predicts a price shape structurally distinct from both the vault's hold-then-collapse and monotonic-decline commodity shapes
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, resource-economics, hotelling-rule, commodity-markets, price-dynamics
• Hotelling's rule (the r-percent rule) predicts an exhaustible resource's shadow price rises at the rate of interest
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, resource-economics, hotelling-rule, value-theory, price-dynamics
• A structural model shows LLMs collapsing the cost of writing as a hiring signal makes labor markets measurably less meritocratic
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, generative-ai, costly-signaling, labor-economics, freelance-labor
• Nordhaus argues the learning-curve coefficient is statistically unidentified and biased upward — a zero-learning process still fits a coefficient of 0.2
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, learning-curve, experience-curve, wrights-law, econometrics
• Organizational forgetting can run the learning curve backwards: on the Lockheed L-1011, unit costs rose when production slowed
  claim budding Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, learning-curve, experience-curve, organizational-forgetting, aircraft-manufacturing
• Does Benkard (2000) report the organizational-forgetting depreciation rate (~0.96 monthly, ~61% of experience surviving a year) that the L-1011 learning-reversal claim rests on?
  question answered 2026-07-18 · economics, learning-curve, organizational-forgetting, aircraft-manufacturing, sourcing
• Does Hotelling's rule for exhaustible-resource pricing predict a different shape than the vault's cost-of-production / unforgeable-costliness cluster?
  capture promoted 2026-07-16 · economics, resource-economics, hotelling-rule, cost-of-production, value-theory
• Does 'when costliness becomes forgeable' explain generative AI's demonetization of writing, art, and credentials?
  capture promoted 2026-07-16 · economics, value-theory, cost-of-production, generative-ai, demonetization
• Investigating the aluminium / low-background-steel bridge: real, but the vault already owns the connective tissue
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-15 · economics, resource-economics, wrights-law, hotelling-rule, aluminium
• Sahal's identity: Wright's Law and Moore's Law become mathematically indistinguishable when cumulative production grows exponentially in calendar time
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-15 · economics, wrights-law, moores-law, learning-curve, technological-forecasting
• Aluminium's Hall-Héroult price decline and low-background steel's fallout decay are the same functional form — exponential decay in calendar time — for unrelated mechanisms
  observation seedling Tier 4 2026-07-15 · economics, resource-economics, aluminium, nuclear-history, cross-domain-bridge
• Aluminium's price fell continuously after the Hall-Héroult process, without a hold-then-collapse plateau
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-07-12 · economics, commodity-markets, price-dynamics, aluminium, history
• Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen & Webb (2020) found research productivity is falling sharply — reproducing Moore's Law now takes more than 18× the researchers of the early 1970s
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-12 · endogenous-growth, ideas-production, research-productivity, diminishing-returns, moores-law
• Real cheaper-extraction disruptions (aluminium, AI inference) have fallen monotonically, not on the hold-then-collapse curve predicted for asteroid-mined PGM
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-07-12 · economics, commodity-markets, price-dynamics, wrights-law, asteroid-mining
• In The Coal Question (1865), William Stanley Jevons argued that improving energy efficiency increases rather than decreases total energy use — the effect now called the Jevons paradox
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-07-12 · economics, energy, jevons, jevons-paradox, rebound-effect
• Kremer (1993) modelled the growth rate of technology as proportional to total population, via the nonrivalry of ideas
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-12 · endogenous-growth, ideas-production, population-scaling, nonrivalry, economics
• Nick Szabo grounds monetary value in the unforgeable cost of producing scarcity, and designed bit gold's proof-of-work to manufacture that costliness digitally
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-12 · economics, monetary-theory, value-theory, cost-of-production, cryptocurrency
• Szabo's history of collectible monies shows their value collapses once a new technology makes their scarcity cheap to forge
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-12 · economics, monetary-theory, value-theory, cost-of-production, history
• Wright's law: unit cost falls a constant fraction with every doubling of cumulative production
  claim budding Tier 3 2026-07-12 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, experience-curve, price-dynamics
• William Stanley Jevons is a double bridge from Victorian science to modern AI: the same polymath built an early mechanical logic machine and coined the efficiency-rebound paradox now framing AI's energy appetite
  observation seedling Tier 4 2026-07-12 · cross-domain-bridge, jevons, history-of-computing, logic-machines, ai-energy
• Unforgeable cost of production is the shared law linking bit gold's design and the asteroid-PGM price-collapse model — the same law viewed from its design side and its collapse side
  observation seedling Tier 2 2026-07-12 · economics, monetary-theory, value-theory, cost-of-production, cryptocurrency
• Does Hotelling's rule for exhaustible-resource pricing predict a different shape than the vault's cost-of-production / unforgeable-costliness cluster?
  question answered 2026-07-12 · economics, resource-economics, hotelling-rule, cost-of-production, value-theory
• What primary source supports the Hall-Héroult era aluminium price figures ($16/lb 1884 → $2/lb 1889 → $0.5/lb 1894)?
  question answered 2026-07-12 · economics, commodity-markets, aluminium, sourcing, price-history
• Verify Jevons's Coal Question (1865) and the paradox's original framing against the primary text or a scholarly economic history
  question answered 2026-07-12 · verification, jevons, jevons-paradox, economics, energy
• Does Wright's law trace cleanly to T.P. Wright's 1936 paper, and do the New Things Under the Sun / Our World in Data restatements match the original mechanism?
  question answered 2026-07-12 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, sourcing
• Does 'when costliness becomes forgeable' explain generative AI's demonetization of writing, art, and credentials?
  question open 2026-07-12 · economics, value-theory, cost-of-production, generative-ai, demonetization
• William Stanley Jevons is a double bridge from Victorian logic to modern AI — he built an early logic machine AND coined the efficiency paradox now framing AI's energy appetite
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-11 · history-of-computing, logic-machines, jevons, economics, ai-energy
• Real cheaper-extraction disruptions fell monotonically (aluminium, AI inference), not on the AstroForge hold-then-collapse curve
  capture promoted Tier 4 2026-07-11 · economics, commodity-markets, price-dynamics, learning-curve, wrights-law
• Unforgeable costliness bridges asteroid-PGM and bit gold: value tracks the hard-to-forge cost of production, and Bitcoin was engineered to escape the collapse the PGM model describes
  capture promoted Tier 2 2026-07-11 · economics, monetary-theory, value-theory, cost-of-production, cryptocurrency
• David Card shared the 2021 economics Nobel for empirical labour-economics work built on natural experiments
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, natural-experiments, credibility-revolution, nobel-prize
• The Carl Zeiss Foundation (1889) made employee-owned optics works a laboratory for early labor reforms — profit-sharing and the eight-hour day
  claim seedling Tier 3 2026-07-11 · history-of-science, optics, instrument-making, labor-history, economics
• The measured wage effect of the Mariel Boatlift flips with sample construction — no effect (Card) versus a 10–30% drop for dropouts (Borjas)
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, natural-experiments
• The Borjas Mariel wage effect may be an artifact of a 1980 survey-methodology change rather than immigration (Clemens & Hunt)
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• The synthetic control method was invented to measure the GDP cost of Basque terrorism, finding a ~10-percentage-point per-capita gap
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · economics, econometrics, synthetic-control, natural-experiments, causal-inference
• Do the primary Mariel papers (Card 1990, Borjas 2015/2017, Peri & Yasenov) confirm the "no effect vs 10–30% dropout drop" figures?
  question answered 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, verification
• Does the Clemens & Hunt argument that Borjas's Mariel effect is a 1980 survey-methodology artifact hold against Borjas's timing rebuttal?
  question open 2026-07-11 · economics, labor-economics, immigration, mariel-boatlift, measurement-artifact
• Asteroid mining won't crash the platinum market gradually — it holds until the whole supply flips off-world, then collapses
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-09 · economics, space-industry, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, resource-economics
• The instrument-grinding trade's straight line from Ernst Abbe to the EUV monopoly bottlenecking GPU fabs
  capture promoted 2026-07-09 · hop, instrument-making, optics, economics, monopoly
• A system-dynamics model of asteroid-mined platinum predicts the PGM price holds near current levels until essentially all supply has shifted off-world, then collapses toward the cost of space extraction
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-09 · economics, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, resource-economics, system-dynamics
• Does the AstroForge PGM system-dynamics model actually produce the 'price holds then collapses' shape, and under what assumptions?
  question open 2026-07-09 · economics, commodity-markets, asteroid-mining, system-dynamics, verification
• MOC: Inference — the word, the mechanics, the economics
  topic map 2026-07-06 · moc, inference, LLM, economics, test-time-compute
• Per-token AI inference cost fell approximately 280x between late 2022 and late 2024
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-06-04 · inference, economics, cost, LLM, token-pricing
• By 2026, inference surpassed training as the dominant AI compute workload, comprising ~two-thirds of all AI compute spend
  claim seedling Tier 3 2026-06-04 · inference, AI-industry, compute, economics, GPU