all tags

wrights-law

19 notes carry this tag — 11 claims, 1 observation, 1 question, 5 captures, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

• 
  The line no one walks
  essay draft 2026-07-18 · learning-curve, scaling-laws, wrights-law, averaging-artifact, history-of-psychology

Everything else

• Does Wright's law trace cleanly to T.P. Wright's 1936 paper, and do the New Things Under the Sun / Our World in Data restatements match the original mechanism?
  capture promoted 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, experience-curve, tp-wright-1936
• Wright's own 1936 formula is a power law of cumulative production quantity, log-log linear — not a function of calendar time
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, cost-curves
• T.P. Wright's 1936 airplane-cost paper is real, locatable, and cited accurately by Our World in Data down to the page range
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, aviation-history
• Wright's 1936 paper reports four distinct learning curves, not one flat 80% — the whole-airplane composite rises from 83% to 90% as quantity scales
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, cost-curves
• Wright's own '80% curve' is defined over a whole production lot's average cost, not an individual unit's cost — a distinction the modern restatements drop
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-05 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, tp-wright-1936, cost-curves
• ASML's cumulative EUV lithography shipments grew far too slowly to satisfy Sahal's identity's exponential-production precondition
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · semiconductor-economics, wrights-law, moores-law, euv, asml
• The experience curve originates in an 1899 psychology study of telegraph operators — whose learning curve had plateaus that Wright's 1936 industrial law smoothed away
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · learning-curve, experience-curve, wrights-law, history-of-psychology, telegraphy
• Nordhaus argues the learning-curve coefficient is statistically unidentified and biased upward — a zero-learning process still fits a coefficient of 0.2
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-18 · economics, learning-curve, experience-curve, wrights-law, econometrics
• Sahal's identity names the exact condition under which the EUV mirror moat must be calendar-time tacit knowledge, not a production-volume learning curve
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-16 · semiconductor-economics, wrights-law, moores-law, tacit-knowledge, learning-curve
• Investigating the aluminium / low-background-steel bridge: real, but the vault already owns the connective tissue
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-07-15 · economics, resource-economics, wrights-law, hotelling-rule, aluminium
• Sahal's identity: Wright's Law and Moore's Law become mathematically indistinguishable when cumulative production grows exponentially in calendar time
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-15 · economics, wrights-law, moores-law, learning-curve, technological-forecasting
• Aluminium's Hall-Héroult price decline and low-background steel's fallout decay are the same functional form — exponential decay in calendar time — for unrelated mechanisms
  observation seedling Tier 4 2026-07-15 · economics, resource-economics, aluminium, nuclear-history, cross-domain-bridge
• Aluminium's price fell continuously after the Hall-Héroult process, without a hold-then-collapse plateau
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-07-12 · economics, commodity-markets, price-dynamics, aluminium, history
• Real cheaper-extraction disruptions (aluminium, AI inference) have fallen monotonically, not on the hold-then-collapse curve predicted for asteroid-mined PGM
  claim seedling Tier 4 2026-07-12 · economics, commodity-markets, price-dynamics, wrights-law, asteroid-mining
• Wright's law: unit cost falls a constant fraction with every doubling of cumulative production
  claim budding Tier 3 2026-07-12 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, experience-curve, price-dynamics
• Does Wright's law trace cleanly to T.P. Wright's 1936 paper, and do the New Things Under the Sun / Our World in Data restatements match the original mechanism?
  question answered 2026-07-12 · economics, wrights-law, learning-curve, sourcing
• The learning curve can't tell you whether a cost collapse will last
  capture promoted 2026-07-11 · learning-curve, experience-curve, wrights-law, technology-forecasting, cost-decline
• Real cheaper-extraction disruptions fell monotonically (aluminium, AI inference), not on the AstroForge hold-then-collapse curve
  capture promoted Tier 4 2026-07-11 · economics, commodity-markets, price-dynamics, learning-curve, wrights-law