all tags

intelligence-tradecraft

38 notes carry this tag — 1 moc, 15 claims, 5 observations, 3 questions, 11 captures, 3 essays. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

• 
  the bias was in the room
  essay drafting 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics
• 
  the constant error
  essay drafting 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, cognitive-bias, psychology, history-of-science
• 
  reliability wants to be judged blind
  essay draft 2026-07-18 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, RAG, provenance, epistemics

Everything else

• What genuinely connects Kelly et al. (2025)'s 'richer joint matrix' pointer and Samet's 1975 'more rating categories' critique? Real citation link, opposite prescription
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-18 · intelligence-tradecraft, admiralty-code, source-evaluation, epistemics, rating-scales
• The Kelly et al. (2025)/Samet (1975) 'more rating categories' cosine pairing (0.87) is a genuine citation link, but the two sources prescribe opposite structural moves on axis count
  observation seedling Tier 1 2026-08-18 · intelligence-tradecraft, admiralty-code, source-evaluation, epistemics, rating-scales
• Sperber et al.'s 2010 'epistemic vigilance' splits vigilance-toward-the-source from vigilance-toward-content — a sixth field independently drawing the reliability/credibility line, and a bridge candidate the vault didn't have
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-15 · epistemics, cross-domain-bridge, cross-time-bridge, source-evaluation, cognitive-science
• Samet's 1975 critique of the Admiralty Code argued for more rating categories, not fewer — citing Bendig (1954) that a nine-point scale transmits more information than a five-point one
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, admiralty-code, information-theory, psychophysics
• In Samet's 1975 study, 31 of 37 officers blamed their own skill rather than the rating scale for evaluation errors that the study's own data traced to the scale
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, admiralty-code, cognitive-bias, self-attribution
• In Samet's 1975 Admiralty Code test, three-fourths of officers treated the reliability rating as correlated with accuracy rather than as an independent dimension
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, admiralty-code, cognitive-bias, epistemics
• The Admiralty Code's six-level scales sit in the same information-theoretic lineage as the question of how many categories absolute judgment can carry — Miller (1956) through Bendig (1954) to Samet (1975)
  observation seedling Tier 1 2026-08-15 · cross-time-bridge, information-theory, psychophysics, intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation
• Can the 'one-third of cases ambiguous or inconsistent' figure Kelly et al. (2025) attribute to Samet (1975) be located in Samet's original text?
  question answered 2026-08-15 · source-evaluation, admiralty-code, verification, intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics
• Intelligence analysts calibrated better than Tetlock's own famous forecasters — and Tetlock's 2025 AI benchmark finds LLMs still losing to expert humans
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, LLM-evaluation, epistemics
• Mandel & Barnes (2014) found Canadian intelligence analysts were underconfident, not overconfident, and their real-world forecasts explained far more outcome variance than Tetlock's landmark study
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-12 · forecasting, calibration, intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, david-r-mandel
• Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?
  capture promoted 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
• Miller's 1956 'channel capacity of absolute judgment' is the buried information-theoretic reason a 1975 Army report argued the Admiralty Code's rating scales were too coarse
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, information-theory, psychophysics, epistemics, source-evaluation
• In Irwin & Mandel's (2023) N=41 expert-analyst experiment, raising stated verbal confidence significantly increased analysts' inferred numeric probability, not just their interval's margin of error
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
• Irwin & Mandel (2023) frame their lab finding as cohering with a pattern Friedman & Zeckhauser (2012) had already found in declassified intelligence products
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, probability-confidence, david-r-mandel, source-evaluation
• Irwin & Mandel's (2023) expert analysts inferred higher confidence from probability intervals located above 50% than from equally-wide intervals below 50%
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, forecasting, independence, probability-confidence
• Kelly et al.'s (2025) 'Irwin and Mandel, 2023' citation names the Risk Analysis paper, not the same-year, similarly-titled Levine paper the vault previously credited to them
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-11 · citation-correction, source-evaluation, sourcing-floor, intelligence-tradecraft, david-r-mandel
• The two axes that won't stay independent — five fields split trust-in-the-source from trust-in-the-message, and the split keeps leaking
  topic map 2026-08-10 · source-evaluation, epistemics, intelligence-tradecraft, admiralty-code, RAG
• Does Icard's own 2023 Intellectica article match the nine-category Honesty×Truth taxonomy as reproduced in his 2024 arXiv paper's Table 6?
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-09 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, formal-logic, admiralty-code
• Icard's 2024 paper adds a full qualitative best-to-worse ranking of the nine message types that is absent from his 2023 taxonomy original
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-09 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, formal-logic, taxonomy
• Benjamin Icard's dynamic logic resolves the reliability/credibility independence problem by abandoning independence — reliability updates credibility rather than sitting beside it as a second axis
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, formal-logic, dynamic-epistemic-logic
• US intelligence doctrine tells analysts to judge probability and confidence independently — Kelly et al. (2025) call the guidance itself incoherent, extending the vault's independence-collapse pattern to a third axis pair
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, forecasting, independence
• Icard's 2023 taxonomy crosses source Honesty with content Truth to yield nine named message types, from information to objective lie
  claim budding Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, formal-logic, admiralty-code
• Icard's 2024 dynamic logic resolves the reliability/credibility independence problem by abandoning independence — credibility becomes primary, reliability a dynamic update operator on it
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, formal-logic, dynamic-epistemic-logic
• The 2025 intelligence-analysis and RAG findings that evaluators cannot separate source reliability from information credibility are instances of Thorndike's 1920 halo effect, which neither cites
  observation seedling Tier 1 2026-08-07 · cross-domain-bridge, cross-time-bridge, cognitive-bias, source-evaluation, intelligence-tradecraft
• Does Icard's own 2023 Intellectica article match the nine-category Honesty×Truth taxonomy as reproduced in his 2024 arXiv paper's Table 6?
  question answered 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, epistemics, source-evaluation, formal-logic, verification
• Does Irwin & Mandel (2023) actually show that intelligence analysts treat confidence as a probability cue rather than a separate quantity?
  question answered 2026-08-07 · intelligence-tradecraft, forecasting, epistemics, independence, verification
• Thorndike's 1920 halo effect is the century-old mechanism behind the vault's source-reliability/credibility bipartite pair
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-08-03 · epistemics, cognitive-bias, source-evaluation, psychology, history-of-science
• Evidence-based medicine's GRADE framework independently splits quality of evidence from strength of recommendation, calling their fusion a source of confusion
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-21 · vault-design, source-tiers, epistemics, GRADE, cross-domain-bridge
• Kelly et al. (2025), after reviewing evidence that raters can't keep reliability and credibility apart, point to a richer joint matrix rather than collapsing the two axes
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-21 · vault-design, source-tiers, epistemics, intelligence-tradecraft, admiralty-code
• A search for practitioner commentary on the Admiralty Code found writers arguing to keep reliability and credibility separate, and none arguing to merge them
  observation seedling Tier 3 2026-07-21 · vault-design, source-tiers, epistemics, intelligence-tradecraft, admiralty-code
• Should the vault's single source_tier field split into two axes — source reliability separate from claim credibility — the way intelligence doctrine and RAG both do?
  capture promoted 2026-07-20 · vault-design, source-tiers, provenance, epistemics, meta
• The two-axis source grade — from the Admiralty Code to RAG, humans and machines both collapse it
  capture promoted 2026-07-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, provenance, RAG, epistemics
• The Admiralty Code grades every intelligence report on two axes meant to be independent — source reliability (A–F) and information credibility (1–6)
  claim seedling Tier 3 2026-07-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, provenance, admiralty-code, epistemics
• Evaluators cannot keep source reliability and information credibility independent — they avoid inconsistent pairings and over-weight the source's track record
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · intelligence-tradecraft, source-evaluation, epistemics, cognitive-bias, admiralty-code
• Cold-War intelligence doctrine and 2025 retrieval research independently converged on the same two-axis source model — reliability apart from credibility — and on the same failure mode
  observation seedling Tier 1 2026-07-11 · cross-domain-bridge, cross-time-bridge, source-evaluation, intelligence-tradecraft, RAG